Weekly Commodity News Letter

Gold:-

Gold prices maintained their gains in American trade, heading for the first daily gain in three days on short-covering, after hitting a four-week lower earlier, while demand climbs on the metal as a safe haven amid renewed North Korea tensions, but prices were nonetheless on track for the second weekly loss in a row, due to prospects of a third Federal Reserve rate hike in December. He FOMC expects to start normalizing the balance sheet from October to cut down on high levels of debt and mortgage-backed securities held by the Federal Reserve, as all the members agreed on the principles of normalizing the policy through the steps detailed in the additional document submitted alongside the usual bank statement in this meeting. The Committee wants to cut its monetary holdings gradually by reinvesting them through the open market system, while expecting the Treasury bill sales to reach $6 billion at the start of the process, while rising to $30 billion a month in 12 months. As for mortgage-backed security sales, they will start at $4 billion and advance to $20 billion a month after a year of the process. Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed mutual fund, rose yesterday by 6.21 metric tonnes to a total of 852.24 metric tonnes, the highest since June 30.

Silver:-

 Silver prices traded flat on Friday near a four-week low on track for the second weekly loss in a row and the largest one in 2-1/2 months on prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December while Chinese demand weakens. The FOMC expects to start normalizing the balance sheet from October to cut down on high levels of debt and mortgage-backed securities held by the Federal Reserve as all the members agreed on the principles of normalizing the policy through the steps detailed in the additional document submitted alongside the usual bank statement in this meeting. The Committee wants to cut its monetary holdings gradually by reinvesting them through the open market system, while expecting the Treasury bill sales to reach $6 billion at the start of the process, while rising to $30 billion a month in 12 months. As for mortgage-backed security sales, they will start at $4 billion and advance to $20 billion a month after a year of the process. Standard and Poor's cut its long-term credit ratings for China by one degree, noting the increased risks due to the rapid credit growth in the country which is expected to weigh on economic growth in the world's second largest economy.

Crude:-

Brent crude widened its gains in American trade on Friday heading for the third daily profit in a row and hitting a six-month high as US crude futures pared their losses with oil futures overall on track for another weekly profit as OPEC's meeting with other producers wrapped up in Vienna on promises of opening the door for a possible extension of their cooperation into 2018 while the US oil rig count hit a three-month low.  Some initial reports said that the meeting has ended without any recommendation of an extension to the global deal beyond March 2018 missing forecasts of an official recommendation of such tone ahead of OPEC's official group meeting in November.  Oil prices rallied 15% since July after the compliance rate with the global deal to cut output by 1.8 million bpd reached 110% in August. Russian oil energy minister Alexander Novak said that it's not expected that the meeting will lead to an extension to the output deal before next January asserting the importance of coordination between different producers. Other ministers said in Vienna that taking a decision on extending global output cuts could be made at OPEC's next meeting in November. Venezuelan oil minister Del Beno said to the press that decisions will be made in November and OPEC producers are studying all the options, including an extension to the deal beyond March 2018. Baker Hughes the US oil services company reported a drop of 5 in the US oil rig counts last week, marking a current total of 744 the lowest since the week ending June 16.

Copper:

Copper futures tilted higher in American trade away from the lowest since August, as the dollar index inched farther away for the fourth session out of five from the highest since September 4, while the Federal Open Market Committee's policy meeting draws to an end in Washington. Markets await US existing home sales data, expected to have risen 0.4% in August to 5.46 million units, compared to a 1.3% drop in July to 5.44M.  Markets look forward to policy decisions by Federal Open Market Committee members in this week's periodic meeting, at which policymakers are expected to unveil their three-year forecasts for inflation, growth, unemployment, and interest rates. Fed policymakers are expected to start the process of trimming down the Federal Reserve's $4.2 trillion holdings of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, while maintaining overnight interest rates at between 1% and 1.25%.

Zinc :

The Zinc is in long medium term bull phase .Currently Zinc is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term Zinc is in hold long position. Support for the Zinc is 195.Resistance for the Zinc is 204 Currently Zinc is in hold long position In short term Zinc is in strong up trend so hold with stop at 198 The Zinc is now trading is approaching overbought level. The oscillator is showing buy signal.
Nickel :
The Nickel is in long- term bull phase .Currently Nickel is in strong downtrend and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. The oscillator is showing SELL signal for short term Nickel is in sell position. Support for the Nickel is 655.Resistance for the Nickel is 744-Currently Nickel is in hold long position Nickel is in sideways but the trend looks weak so better buy above 734.8 or hold with stop at 687.5 the oscillator is showing BUY signal.

Lead:-

The Lead is in perfect uptrend .Currently Lead is in strong uptrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. In last few days’ lot of positive accumulation happened in the Lead. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term the current position is buying and closed above 3 week high with volume signals up breakout. Support for the Lead is 150. Immediate resistance for Lead is 165 Lead closed above 1 week high with volume signals up breakout Currently Lead is in hold long position In short term Lead is in strong up trend so hold with stop at 154 The Lead is now trading in highly overbought level. The oscillator is showing sell signal.

Aluminum:-

The Aluminum is in perfect uptrend .Currently Aluminum is in strong downtrend and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term Aluminum is in hold long position. Support for the Aluminum is 134. Immediate resistance for Aluminum is 142.

Commodity  Trends:

	R1	S1
GOLD	29900	29400
SILVER	40800	39400
NICKEL	744	655
CRUDE	3315	3150
COPPER	429	415
LEAD	165	150
ALUMINIUM	142	134
ZINC	204	195