Saturday 16 September 2017

Weekly Commodity/ MCX News Letter

Gold:-

Gold futures tilted lower in American trade even as the dollar index declined following a spate of disappointing data from the US, the world's largest economy. Earlier US data showed retail sales down 0.2% in August, compared to a 0.3% advance in July, revised downwards from 0.6%, while analysts expected a 0.1% decline. Additionally, the Capacity Utilization Rate fell to 76.1% from 76.9% in July, missing forecasts of 76.8%, while University of Michigan released its preliminary reading for the consumer sentiment survey, with a dip to 95.3 in September from 96.8 in July, revised lower from 97.6, while besting expectations of 95.1. The mostly disappointing data could impact policymakers' decisions at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 19-20, at which Fed policymakers are expected to unveil their three year forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

 

Silver:-

 Silver futures declined to the lowest so far this month, moving farther away from recent multi-month highs even as the dollar index lost ground as well for the first session in four, following an array of data from the US and China, the world's two largest economies. Earlier Chinese data showed industrial production slowed down to 6.0% y/y in August from 6.6%, while analysts expected a 6.6% growth rate, as fixed-asset investments slowed down as well to 7.8% from 8.3%, missing forecasts of 8.2%, and finally, retail sales slowed down to 10.1% from 10.4%, also missing expectations of 10.5%. Unemployment claims for the week ending September 9 fell to 284 thousand from 298K in the previous reading, below expectations of 300K. Upbeat US inflation data could impact policymakers' decisions at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 19-20, at which Fed policymakers are expected to unveil their three year forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. Chances of a Fed rate hike for a third time this year rose to 50.9% from 41.4%, according to latest changes in financial bet markets.

Crude:-

Oil futures tilted lower in American trade even as the dollar index gave up ground, following a spate of data from the US, the world's largest energy consumer. On Wednesday, the IEA released its monthly report, at which it raised its forecasts for demand in 2017 by 0.1 million bpd to 1.6M bpd, while expecting global oil demand to hit 2015 highs, especially from the US and the euro zone. The EIA report also noted rebalancing efforts in the markets to erase the current oversupply of crude are still ongoing as global supplies fell by 0.72 million bpd in August for the first time in five months, due to OPEC's dipping output levels, and finally the Agency projected higher prices although modestly, as the market tightens gradually. On the same day the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks, showing a build-up of 5.9 million barrels in the week ending September 8, adding to the 4.6M increase in the previous reading while analysts expected a 4.1M rise, with total stocks now reaching 468.2 million barrels, remaining within the uppermost range on average in this time of year. Otherwise gasoline stocks fell 3.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories, including heating fuel rose 2.3 million both remaining within the uppermost range on average in this time of year.

Copper:

Copper the best non-precious metal conductor of electricity has exceptional strength ductility and resistance to creeping and corrosion to make it the preferred and safest conductor of electrical wiring in buildings. Economic, technological, and societal factors influence the supply and demand of copper. Land-based resources are estimated at 1.6 billion tonnes of copper, and resources in deep-sea nodules are estimated at 0.7 billion tonnes. Worldwide, approximately one-third of all copper consumed is recycled copper. Copper is produced in more than 25 countries today. Because of global dispersion of copper production, the risk of disruption in global supplies is low. On the other hand, because of its importance in construction and power transmission, any disruption in supplies will have a major effect on the economy. The Copper is in long- medium- term bull phase .Currently Copper is showing some down move and trend is strong momentum is also showing strength and supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend The oscillator is showing sell signal For short term Copper is in sell position. Support for the Copper is 411.Resistance for the Copper is 436.

Zinc :

The Zinc is in long- medium- term bull phase .Currently Zinc is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term Zinc is in sell position. Support for the Zinc is 177. Resistance for the Zinc is 200. Currently Zinc is in hold short position The Zinc is in downtrend for short term buy only if close above 196.0 The Zinc is now trading is approaching oversold level. The oscillator is showing buy signal.

Nickel :

The Nickel is in long medium term bull phase .Currently Nickel is showing some down move and trend is strong momentum is also showing strength but volume is unsatisfactory the open interest is not increasing with trend. The oscillator is on sell signal and Nickel is coming down from overbought level for short term Nickel is in sell position. Support for the Nickel is 689.Resistance for the Nickel is 744.

Lead:-

The Lead is in long term bull phase .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend and the trend is supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. The oscillator is on BUY Signal and Lead is recovering from oversold level for short term Lead is in sell position. Support for the Lead is 140.Resistance for the Lead is 152. Currently Lead is in hold long position Lead is moving sideways with low volatility so short term investor better to buy if close above 149.65 closes below 143.1 sell will happen. The oscillator is showing buy signal.

Aluminum:-

The Aluminum is in long- medium short medium term bull phase .Currently Aluminum is moving sideways the oscillator is showing sell signal .In last 1 month volatility is very less buy the Aluminum above 138 or buys with strict stop at 130. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term Aluminum is in sell position. Support for the Aluminum is 128. Immediate resistance for Aluminum is 135 Currently Aluminum is in hold long position Aluminum is moving sideways so short term investor better to buy only above 135.6 or hold with stop at 131.9 The oscillator is showing buy signal .
R1S1
GOLD3031029630
SILVER4164040090
NICKEL744689
CRUDE32503060
COPPER436411
LEAD152140
ALUMINIUM135128
ZINC200177

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